Bitcoin Bottom Debate: Standard Chartered Sees $59K Low, Galaxy Predicts Late 2026 Floor
Two major research houses are split on Bitcoin's cycle bottom. Standard Chartered claims $59K was the low, citing geopolitical calm and ETF flows. Galaxy Research, however, sees a much lower floor forming by late 2026, based on historical cycle data.
Standard Chartered is calling the bottom for this Bitcoin cycle at $59,000. They point to easing geopolitical tensions and a potential end to the oil rally as key factors. The firm also suggests that some ETF holders sold to participate in a recent tech listing, creating a temporary dip.
Galaxy Research disagrees, arguing that the four-year cycle is compressing, pushing the true floor much lower. They highlight that only a fraction of historical bottoming signals have triggered, and current drawdowns are far milder than previous cycles.
Galaxy's analysis suggests the bottom could be between $40,000 and $46,000, likely not materializing until late 2026. This is based on the timing of past cycle bottoms relative to halving events.
Despite their differing price targets, both firms agree that the overall four-year cycle remains intact. They acknowledge that market structure, including increased institutional and corporate holdings, has raised the floor compared to retail-dominated cycles of the past.