Bitcoin Slips to $81,652 as Treasury Buying Stalls: $80,000 Cost Basis Is the Line That Matters
Bitcoin fell about 4% to an intraday low of $81,652 on Bybit after rejection near $85,000, erasing two days of gains. Price Pulse reads this as a bid problem, not a selling problem: treasury buying has stalled and exchange stablecoin reserves sit at a one-year low. The $80,000 treasury cost basis is the key test.
Bitcoin failed near $85,000 and handed back two days of gains, sliding about 4% to $81,652 on Bybit. The source shows volume on the decline running below the recent rally, which points to missing bids rather than aggressive sellers.
Here is the mechanism. Glassnode puts the average treasury cost basis near $80,000, and price has closed above it since September 18. Yet monthly net purchases have shrunk to a few thousand BTC, far below 2025 peaks. The profit-fed buying loop Glassnode describes has not restarted. Exchange stablecoin reserves at a one-year low also thin out fresh buying power.
The nearest support is $81,500, where an ascending trendline from the October 15 low meets a swing low. Lose it and $80,000 comes into play, pushing treasuries back underwater. In mid-2022 a similar stretch below cost basis produced one of the few notable net sales on Glassnode's chart. That is the exposure, though it is a historical parallel, not a forecast.
The counterargument: short-term holder realized price is $74,850, leaving recent buyers about 9% in profit, and Bitcoin still holds above its 50-day averages. Deeper support clusters at $73,000 to $75,000. Bulls need a reclaim of $84,000 to reopen $85,000 to $87,000.
Signals to watch: a daily close below $80,000, any pickup in treasury purchases, and stablecoin reserves rebuilding on exchanges.