Goldman Slashes Gold Target: Rate Cut Hopes Fade, ETF Outflows Surge

Goldman Sachs just took a $500 axe to its 2026 gold price forecast, now calling for $4,900 an ounce. This isn't just a minor tweak; it's a direct response to markets ditching the idea of early Fed rate cuts. The bank's analysts are seeing weaker demand for gold-backed ETFs, which saw a $2 billion outflow in May alone. Asian funds are particularly weak, logging their first monthly outflow since August 2025. Investor positioning is screaming bearish, with put-call skew on the main gold ETF hitting levels not seen since 2017. The Fed's hawkish pivot, with some officials even eyeing hikes, is crushing gold's appeal as a policy hedge. Goldman warns gold could drop to $4,400 if the Fed actually raises rates. Despite the near-term pain, central bank buying and planned reserve growth offer a floor, but the path ahead is tactically cautious.