Intel Stock Surges 10% on Trump's Apple Chip Claims, But Smart Money Bets Against It

Intel stock (INTC) exploded 10% after President Trump tweeted Apple would design and build chips in the US. This move shattered a double-top resistance at $132.70, a level that had capped the price twice before. Volume surged on the breakout, and Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) edged back to neutral, hinting at easing selling pressure and potential institutional reentry.

But don't get too excited. Neither Apple nor Intel has confirmed the deal, and the US government, which owns a stake in Intel, is a silent partner. While Intel's stock has tripled this year on AI demand and Nvidia ties, its foundry remains unprofitable and the PC market faces headwinds.

Crypto traders aren't buying the hype yet. Smart money on Hyperliquid remains net short Intel, with shorts outweighing longs by a significant margin. While the bearish bet has shrunk slightly post-news, the overall positioning is far from bullish.

The options market echoes this hesitation. While short-term traders piled into calls, indicating a chase for upside, open interest in puts has risen. This defensive positioning suggests longer-term holders are hedging against a potential failed breakout, a classic sign of caution.

The breakout is real on the chart, but the underlying sentiment is shaky. Intel needs to hold above $132.70 with CMF turning decisively positive to confirm the rally. Otherwise, this could be a bull trap leading to a sharp reversal.