US Payrolls Data Looms: Will Strong Jobs Fuel Fed Rate Hikes and Tank Crypto?
US Nonfarm Payrolls data drops Thursday, and traders are watching closely. Expectations are for a slowdown, but a hot print could reignite Fed rate hike fears, putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Don't get caught sleeping on this macro catalyst.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to drop the June Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report Thursday. While consensus expects a slowdown to 110K jobs, whispers suggest wage growth could tick higher to 3.5%. This is the kind of data that moves markets, especially with the Fed still hawkish. A surprisingly strong jobs number could push rate hike probabilities higher, putting a chill on risk appetite. Even with inflation concerns, a dismal print is needed to meaningfully hurt the dollar. TD Securities is calling for a softer 80K, citing moderation in job growth. The ADP private payrolls report already showed a slowdown, adding to the mixed signals. Cleveland Fed President Hammack's recent comments reinforced the Fed's willingness to hike if inflation remains sticky, despite economic growth concerns. Markets are pricing in a 34% chance of a July hike, a significant jump from early June. A hot NFP print could easily fuel further rate hike bets, potentially sending the US Dollar higher and crypto assets reeling. Conversely, a significant miss below 70K might offer a temporary reprieve, but a sustained bullish reversal for risk assets hinges on a Fed pivot, which seems unlikely on a single jobs miss.